Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology promises vast wealth, with a predicted $14 quadrillion generated within 20 years. But as this wealth accumulates disproportionately amongst top AI companies, who also benefit from reduced tax rates, the impact on the wider society — particularly job losses — raises serious questions. We need to consider: does our approach align more with our core values or with the growing wealth of top tech giants?
AI Wealth Prediction: $14 Quadrillion
Stuart Russell, a renowned professor of computer science at the University of California, Berkeley, forecasts the immense financial impact of AI. Russell, co-author of the leading AI textbook, Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach, predicts that AI will generate around $14 quadrillion in wealth over the next 20 years.
The Top Five Beneficiaries
Of this staggering sum, nearly $8 quadrillion is expected to fall into the pockets of the top five AI companies:
- Google: $1.5 quadrillion
- Amazon: $1.1 quadrillion
- Apple: $2.5 quadrillion
- Microsoft: $2.0 quadrillion
- Meta: $0.7 quadrillion
A Decreased Tax Burden
These tech giants are not only amassing astronomical wealth but also benefiting from a reduced corporate tax rate — down from 35% in 2016 to 21%. Estimated percentages of their annual revenue paid in taxes are as follows:
- Google: 17-20%
- Amazon: 13-15%
- Microsoft: 18-22%
- Apple: 20-25%
- Meta: 15-18%
The Human Impact: Job Losses
In stark contrast to the wealth accumulating at the top, the impact of AI on employment is concerning. It’s predicted that 3 million to 5 million Americans will lose their jobs to AI in the next 20 years, with re-employment costs ranging from $60 billion to $100 billion. However, this figure may be underreported. A more recent estimate from Forbes suggests as many as 300 million jobs could be lost globally over 20 years.
A Question of Alignment
As the economic landscape shifts due to AI, the question becomes one of alignment. Do our actions align more with the support of the millions facing job losses, or with the five top AI companies continuing to enjoy tax benefits? Is there a fair and caring middle ground?
Perhaps the top AI companies should shoulder the full cost of re-employing those affected by AI-induced job losses. Given their forecasted wealth, it would hardly be a burdensome expense. The question remains: does that sound fair to you?
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