Since the PC browser search and ad experience have been dominated by Google, Microsoft’s competitive play may be on the mobile side, where no single provider dominates search.
Picking off Yahoo during a low point in its market performance would give Microsoft a significant boost to its online fortunes. Microsoft’s share of the search market triples if the takeover succeeds, and paid search ad revenue should increase.
The cynical viewpoints we have witnessed online about competitors in other industries teaming up to take down a market leader, and failing in spectacular fashion, suggests Microsoft may opt for a softer target to establish itself as the go-to destination.
Millions of mobile phones nestle in the pockets and pocketbooks of people around the globe. Microsoft already occupies the desktops of millions of people, even if those folks promptly head to Google after booting Windows.
Billions of dollars in ad revenue online look like the obvious motivation for trying to tear market share away from Google. Every percentage point a combined Yahoo/Microsoft could gain at Google’s expense delivers profits.
Google stubbornly refuses to go along with any portents of doom, even if a little bit of The Fear showed up with their choice to place video ads in search results. People go to Google because they do; inertia among Internet users is remarkably difficult to change.
Star Trek fans, like fellow writer Doug Caverly, will recall Captain Kirk’s disdainful opinion of no-win scenarios. Microsoft faces that choice. Keep tilting at Google’s impossible windmill, or look for greener fields elsewhere.
Reuters made the salient point about Yahoo bringing a lot to Microsoft on the mobile side. Microsoft competes with Nokia on the mobile operating system side, but it makes more sense for Microsoft to work on a compelling mobile search and service experience that any mobile users, on Symbian or Windows Mobile or even Google Android, will seek out and use.
Mobile phone growth globally, especially in the expanding middle classes in Asia, gives Microsoft an opportunity that it doesn’t have against Google on the desktop. Getting the Yahoo deal finished soon will put Microsoft on the way to making a play for that market.
