Imagine that we’re staring at a Rube Goldberg machine in action, and something in its depths has caused a drop in print advertising to occur. Now, we’re left to wait and hope that the final result (or at least a byproduct) will be a calmness or increase in online advertising.
Okay, so that comparison was a little odd, but it’s always fun to work in references to Rube Goldberg, and the economy is being stubbornly complex at the moment. Anyway, the drop in print advertising is best represented by what Henry Blodget called a “shocking fall-off” at the New York Times. And many people agree that some sort of advertising recession is bound to take place as the rest of the economy goes down the tubes.
But what remains to be seen is exactly who and what will be affected. Blodget lists Google and Yahoo right along with companies like Gannett and McClatchy, and that’s not a good sign for a lot of modern businesses. Yet in other corners, there are strong expectations that online advertising will do all right.
Roughly two weeks ago, Jupiter Research predicted an impressive increase in local online advertising (with a target date of 2012, but nice accumulations along the way, of course). A little more recently, Datran Media found that over 2,000 marketers were quite comfortable with email advertising, and that they liked search advertising, as well. Then, yesterday, Bill McCloskey surveyed his own small group of experts and found that email advertising should do well in a recession.
There will always be outliers – E*Trade created a bit of a stir by buying two Super Bowl ads – but all in all, it’s not time for anyone involved with online advertising to give up hope. Just stand clear of the machine and keep your fingers crossed.
