Conference Board Reports Drop in Leading Economic Indicators

After a 0.6% drop in March, and no change in April, the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.5% last month according to a report from the Conference Board.

“The Coincident Index rose modestly through May, but the Leading Economic Indicators are suggesting slower growth setting in during the third quarter,” said Conference Board Labor Economist Ken Goldstein. “This is not just a domestic phenomenon.”

“Declines or slower increases appear in at least six of the eight countries for which The Conference Board calculates leading indexes,” he added. “Energy prices are one factor driving this global trend. Of more concern is the level of confidence of both consumers and chief executives, which has been choppy.” According to Reuters,

May’s drop was larger than the 0.3 percent decline Wall Street economists had expected. However, the Conference Board revised April’s index upward to an unchanged reading from a previously reported decline of 0.2 percent.

Only one of the 10 indicators in the index — stock prices — increased in May.
The Conference Board also reported that the Coincident Index rose 0.2% in May, after a 0.2% increase in April, and no change in March. The Lagging Index went up 0.3% in May, after going up 0.1% in April, and falling 0.2% in March.

“We continue to believe that the leading index is a poor leading indicator of the economy,” commented Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

The U.S. index has fallen at an annual rate of 2.2% over the last six months and 1.9% over the past twelve. The Conference Board says that nearly half of this decline is because of the range between short-term and long-term interest rates getting smaller.

Chris is a staff writer for Murdok. Visit Murdok for the latest ebusiness news.